Dangers Ahead for Sudan After Its suspension From African Union: PSC
Credit: issafrica.org/pscreport / Protests are growing against the military government of Sudan
DIPLOMATIC TIMES STAFF
At its 854th meeting on 6 June 2019, the Peace and Security Council (PSC), chaired by Sierra Leonean Ambassador Brima Patrick Kapuwa, suspended Sudan from the African Union (AU). This means Sudan is not permitted to participate in any AU activities until the Transitional Military Council (TMC) hands over power to a civilian leadership. A PSC Report examines the consequences of Sudan’s suspension from AU, including the risk of civil war in the Northeast African nation.
“The decision to suspend Sudan from the AU was not an easy one, but the violent crackdown on protestors left the PSC with little choice.”
credit: wikipedia / Flag of the African Union
The #AU Peace and Security Council has with immediate effect suspended the participation of the Republic of #Sudan in all #AU activities until the effective establishment of a Civilian-led Transitional Authority, as the only way to allow the Sudan to exit from the current crisis pic.twitter.com/ioBlnfnxcl
— African Union Peace (@AU_PSD) June 6, 2019
A tough decision
The nature of the atrocities committed principally by the Rapid Response Force (RSF) (a militia that has also been accused of brutality in Darfur) against protestors in Khartoum on 3 June and the resultant international backlash meant that the PSC had to take a strong stand. The pressure on the PSC to act against the TMC’s impunity was palpable,” according to PSC Report
United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt Alleged Influence of Choices of the Junta
“First, China and Russia blocked a United Nations (UN) Security Council position to condemn the TMC’s action in Sudan in the council’s 4 June meeting on the situation. This meant that a strong AU position would be useful in subsequent UN discussions on the country. Second, the military junta disregarded the AU’s 60-day deadline by announcing that it would stay on until the elections in nine months. Also crucial was the alleged role of external actors, particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in influencing the choices of the junta.”
-PSC Report stated.
The Dangers Ahead For Sudan
“The suspension comes at a time when the drastic turn of events in the country point to a treacherous way ahead. Firstly, the repressive choices of the RSF component of the TMC make it clear that former president Omar al-Bashir’s ‘deep state’ structures are still contesting protesters in an attempt to preserve the status quo,” the PSC Report.
Secondly, it is clear that the biggest strategic danger in the ongoing clashes between the military and the civilian population is that a rare opportunity for change in Sudan might be missed. This opportunity will be missed due to the use of force, as in the current situation, or a negotiated deal in which the military dominates, or a civilian-led arrangement that has no real control of the elements of power, outside the army. The latter will set the civilian leadership up for failure and create the circumstances for a military takeover in the long run.
Danger Of Risk Of Civil War In Sudan
The third danger is the risk of civil war. Discontent with al-Bashir in the run-up to the toppling of his regime united many Sudanese, but could not resolve fractures in the army, deep divisions between Khartoum and the peripheral areas, and differing interests within the civilian population. Meanwhile, the RSF’s excessive use of force against civilians could trigger a militarisation of the civilian front, either through people wanting to protect themselves or by attracting the involvement of militias operating outside Khartoum. An outbreak of war in the capital amid the country’s many fault lines will lead to a free-for-all situation that will be difficult to contain, if not ‘somalianise’ Sudan. – PSC Report
AU Has Not Announced Any Clear Strategy Backed By A Rodmap
Particularly concerning is the fact that no clear strategy backed by a roadmap has been announced by the AU. The absence of an AU roadmap has created a gap that, if not closed immediately, will become an avenue for the proliferation of processes. Not only will this make the Sudan crisis difficult to resolve, but it will also place the country on the chopping board in terms of regional and external influence mongering – with serious repercussions, PSC Report concludes.
