Credit: africacenter.org /    The coronavirus pandemic has spread rapidly since it arrived in Africa. This time series analysis tracks the logarithmic dissemination of COVID-19 across the continent.

DIPLOMATIC TIMES  STAFF

AFRICA   reported its first case of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, on February 15, 2020—a full two months after it was first identified in China. Once it arrived on the continent, the virus spread to over 30 countries in less than a month. It now has been reported in 47 African countries, according to a report by the Africa Center For Strategic Centers.  Hotspots have emerged in South Africa, North Africa, and West Africa with dissemination linked to a host of factors including urban population density, effectiveness of testing and reporting, and levels of international exposure, among others.  With confirmed cases in Africa rising at a rate of approximately 25 percent per day, time is of the essence if Africa is to avoid the worst effects of the pandemic, the ASFSC report stated. Slowing the exponential expansion of the virus will rely on identifying the primary transmissions routes within each country and disrupting these.

Managing Health and Economic Priorities as the COVID-19 Pandemic Spreads in Africa

“The coronavirus is placing severe strains on Africa’s health, economic, and security sectors. Mitigation and suppression efforts will require a comprehensive government response built on clear communications and public trust,” Dr. Shannon Smith,  a professor of practice and director of engagement at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, writes.  As COVID-19 spreads in Africa, the effects could be devastating—even for a continent accustomed to battling infectious disease COVID-19 endangers African lives and African economies, and efforts to control the disease will themselves come with an enormous economic and social price. In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the pandemic has become a “national disaster.” Never before, he said, “in the history of our democracy have we been confronted by such a severe situation.”

What Does COVID Mean for Africa?

The regional chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that Africa is experiencing an “extremely rapid evolution” of numbers of COVID-19 cases. As the virus has followed its slingshot path around the world, countries elsewhere have seen surging numbers overwhelm local health systems, offering ominous examples for those that are later in this global sequence. In the fight against the novel coronavirus, Africa does have certain advantages. Demographics are on its side. The median age of Africa is under 20 years—less than half that of Italy—and international data shows that risk of serious medical complications and death from COVID-19 rises significantly with age. Additionally, Africa has experience confronting infectious diseases, including the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014-2016. Many African countries have made improvements in health security since that outbreak, including the establishment of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Finally, there is an unresolved scientific debate as to whether warm weather will inhibit spread of the virus. The pandemic, however, could overwhelm those advantages, and Africa’s health, economic, and security sectors will be at the frontlines of this fight.