Credit:  World Health Organization/Daniel Elombat /

By Gary Raynaldo       DIPLOMATIC TIMES

The number of COVID-19 cases in Africa has risen to 29,377, with 1,339 deaths according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).  In Africa, the virus has spread to dozens of countries within weeks.  North Africa remains the hardest-hit of the continent’s five regions, followed by West, Southern, East, and Central.  The Economic Commission for Africa says the crisis could push twenty-seven million people into extreme poverty, joining the twenty-five million already there. The Council on Foreign Relations held a conference call last Tuesday on ‘Africa’s Response To COVID-19’.  Speakers warned there are many challenges to Africa slowing and halting the spread of COVID-19 on  the African continent.  John Campbell, the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC., and  Michelle D. Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, addressed Africa’s response to  COVID-19 during the  CFR conference call.

“The first is, if you look at Africa from a worldwide context, the poverty is striking. Fifty-six percent of the urban population is packed into slums. Fifty-six percent of the urban population. And the urban population is now almost half of the total population. Further, economically—though there are bright spots scattered all over the continent—but economically it’s important to remember that a large percentage of Africans are outside the modern economy altogether. They are in the informal economy, where the essential ingredient is face-to-face contact.”

-John Campbell , Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Most African  Nations Have Weak, or Non-existent Public Health Infrastructure 

Campbell said the  second  issue is that Africa’s population is vulnerable.  “About 40 percent of the continent’s children are under-nourished. And the continent has the highest percentage in the world of what we refer to as underlying medical conditions, such as HIV, or TB, or diabetes. Then there is the fact that, again with a few shining exceptions, most countries in Africa have a weak or nonexistent public health infrastructure. To simply take one statistics, and the number of statistics is legion, but to take one: For intensive care units, ICUs, in Africa there are five beds per one million people. Whereas in Europe the figure is four thousand beds per one million people.”   Another important issue is, with some notable exceptions, there is widespread distrust by ordinary people of African governments, Campbell added.  He said in many places current African governments are seen as exploitative, in some respects a continuation of the old colonial regimes,

Mitigating Factors That Might Reduce the Toll of the Virus in Africa:

“The first is if half the population lives in urban areas, half the population lives in rural areas,” Campbell said.  “And in fact, the rural population, which is obviously dispersed, the percentage is the highest in the world. The second is that the elderly, who have been such a high percentage of the victims of the disease in Asia, Europe, and the United States—the elderly in Africa are not isolated from the general population. They don’t live in nursing homes, or retirement homes. Instead, they live with their families and they’re dispersed. They’re not all concentrated in one place. And then finally, there is the strength of traditional institutions and also the strength of traditional religion. And these can be—these can be real sources of strength in terms of educating a population with respect to public health.”

SOUTH AFRICA Has Flattened The Curve of COVID-19  With Heavy-Handed Policing 

“I like to think a little bit about South Africa, because the government of Cyril Ramaphosa has done so much that is right, and yet carries high risks,” Campbell observed.  The South African government has introduced social isolation and quarantine not very different from what was imposed in South Korea and Thailand, and eventually in China. And it has had a desired effect. The curve has, indeed, flattened.”  Campbell warned that heavy-handed policing by South Africa authorities is a risky response to the COVID-19 that may ultimately caused the gains in controlling the  virus to reverse.

“The issue, though, is rather as in this country and in other places, there was insufficient provision made for the impact of quarantine and social isolation on the poorest part of the population. And the enforcement of quarantine and social isolation by the security services has often been brutal. And in fact, there have been a number of people killed in South Africa by the security services. This carries the risk that public acceptance, public toleration for what would appear to be an effective health policy may start to evaporate.”

Campbell noted that  enforcement of those policies require greater attention, greater subtlety, greater training for the security services. He also observed that another important factor is  “how do you respond to the needs of the poorest part of the population that is almost entirely in the informal economy, which requires face-to-face contact?”

Michelle D. Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, agreed with Campbell regarding the importance of social contact in the informal economy:

 “I agree with the point that John was making about societies where the majority of people are engaged in the informal economy and are living an experience where, if they don’t do their work that day, they don’t eat that day. societies where the majority of people are engaged in the informal economy and are living an experience where, if they don’t do their work that day, they don’t eat that day.”   Gavin  added that she thought that in the in the immediate term one of the things that needs to happen  is some innovation and some experimentation on how to try and control the virus and its transmission, acknowledging that “it is not reasonable to ask these communities to simply shelter in place in the absence of a massive effort to get to them means of survival, meaning, you know, food, access to water, et cetera.”

Messaging Is Immediate Priority in Africa Response To Public Heath-Crises

“I do think another kind of immediate priority actually comes around messaging,” Gavin said.   “There is such an important role for trust in successful  to public-health crises. In countries where trust in state authority figures is low, it’s going to be really important to work with some unlikely allies sometimes, to be working with civil society, even civil-society groups that have been critical of government in the past, to be working with traditional leaders, with faith leaders, so that trusted voices of authority are really being heard that can cut through misinformation and the kind of clouds of suspicion that come up in our society and any society in a scary situation, and get people the information they need to make smart choices for their health.”

“In the long term, the economic consequences of this pandemic are absolutely devastating for Africa. And thinking now about how to mitigate that and how to steer the continent through what the World Bank expects to be, you know, a major contraction in African GDP, so the whole continent tipping into recession.”

-Michelle D. Gavin, senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations

Gavin concluded saying that this entire experience is a “wakeup call” to people around the world that governments and governance matters.  “And I think that is a positive thing. Sort of as important as private sectors are—and they are—there are some things that we all needs governments to do for us; and so investing in governance that works, and perhaps will become a little more into fashion. And I think that’s a good thing.”